![]() ![]() But if it doesn't happen, we will be looking back at high P/Es and saying, 'How could you think of this when you could see it was a temporary surge?'" "I myself am feeling less enthusiastic about it, but still think it can happen. People are less worried about valuations, and the loudest bears like Jeremy Grantham have been proven wrong, at least for now, but that does not mean the recent belief in a new "Roaring 20s" plays out, according to Altfest. Millionaires are much less likely to believe the market is in a bubble, according to the survey, with respondents describing bubble conditions falling by 11 percentage points quarter over quarter, and notably lower (14% lower) than the broader investor population surveyed by E-Trade. We're starting from a low base out of the pandemic and highly accommodative policy, but still it's going to be challenging." Tech's appeal is its earnings consistency "There was a lot of gasoline thrown on the fire from the monetary and fiscal perspective," Loewengart said, and some of it pre-dated the pandemic in the form of the Trump tax cuts and "even that was not moving growth in a big way," he said. It is the reason that the bond markets have not reacted to Fed discussion of inflation and raising rates by pushing yields higher in fact, fears of less than stellar economic growth have sent yields down in recent weeks.Īltfest said investors want to believe in the rosy outlook, and the year-over-year comparisons are large given the sudden recession caused by Covid-19, but if economic growth moderates to 2% to 2.5%, "that could be a psychological sobriety" event for investors, especially in light of high U.S. "The optimism I have shared for a longer period of above-average growth is what we can still have, but the logical situation is sometime next year, less than a year from now, we will be looking at normalized growth and that isn't what people want to hear." ![]() But he added that the virus still has the potential to reverse that, evidenced by the Dow's 900-point drop as the delta variant came into focus - the CDC is now revising its masking guidance again to be more cautious indoors - though he thinks the bigger risk to investor sentiment is that growth is just not as good as current expectations. "Optimism has the psychological momentum," said Lew Altfest, CEO of Altfest Personal Wealth Management. Forty-one percent of millionaires described the current economic period as "expansionary" which was up from 30% who held that view last quarter. Those who seemed unsure in Q2 (the 44% who graded the economy at a C) have moved into the more bullish camp, with that view falling to 29% of millionaires this quarter. The percentage of millionaires who graded the economy an A or B grade this quarter was up 13 percentage points since Q2, rising from a minority 39% last quarter to 52% at the start of Q3. The wealthy have an improved outlook on the U.S. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit
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